News

Survey USA announced a poll today showing Barack Obama with a 50%-46% lead in Virginia.  Rasmussen also released a poll showing the race tied 48%-48%.  This comes on the heels of Rasmussen’s polls last week showing McCain with a 2% lead (49%-47%).  Unfortunately, the Rasmussen results do not show crosstabs.
Survey USA releases their crosstabs which are the more interesting part of the polling data.  Among other results, Democrats should take note of the following:
Men are tied 48%-48% while Obama leads women 52%-43%.  Obama destroys McCain among young people, voters who are 35 to 64 are pretty much tied, while the elderly are solidly McCain (51%-43%).
McCain leads white voters 57%-39% while Obama solidly leads all other racial categories.  Obama trounces with voters who earn less than $50,000 per year (58%-38%), while voters who earn over $50,000 per year are slightly McCain (49%-47%).
The regional numbers are also interesting.  I have never been clear on where Survey USA draws their lines, but it seems to me that it must be based upon area codes.

• McCain predictably trounces in “Shenandoah” (53%-44%) (540 area code?)
• Obama trounces in the “Northeast” (NOVA) (51%-43%) (703/571 area codes?)
• Obama has an even larger lead in the “Southeast” (56%-40%) (757 area codes?)
• Obama leads in the “Central” (50%-46%) (804/434 area codes?)

These numbers in the Southeast and Central seem a bit suspect, but if true they would represent some real opportunities for us in the Presidential race and also in several Congressional races.
When compared with the 2004 CNN Virginia Presidential Exit Poll, these numbers show some interesting trends:

• Big Flip In Male Voters. Obama is substantially more competitive among male voters.  In 2004, Kerry lost male Virginia voters 59%-40%, while Survey USA says that men are tied 48%-48%.    From a 19% margin to a 0% margin.
• Middle Age Changes. Obama has evened this race by substantially narrowing the margin among middle age Virginia voters.  In 2004, voters age 30-44 voted for George Bush 59%-40%.  Today’s poll shows them voting 50%-47% for McCain.  That’s from a 19% margin to a 3% margin.
• Lower Income Changes. Kerry also only won Virginia voters earning under $50,000 by 4% in 2004.  Today’s poll shows Obama carrying that group by 20%.  From a 4% margin to a 20% margin.  It appears that economic disfunction is finally taking its toll on Republican support among “Reagan Democrats.”
• Upper Income Changes. Bush won Virginia voters earning over $50,000 per year 57%-43%.  Obama has narrowed that margin to 2% (49%-47%).  From a 14% margin to a 2% margin.
• The Elderly & Religious Hold Steady for McCain. The Obama and Kerry’s elderly margins show the smallest shift Bush +12%, McCain +8%) .  Additionally, the religious voters are hard to compare because of how they are broken down, but the margins seem similar.

Even if these poll results are off within a margin of error, the size of many of these shifts is undeniable.
There are some tectonic shifts taking place in the Virginia electorate and Democrats have a real shot at winning Virginia and making substantial gains in Congressional races if these numbers are accurate and hold.
UPDATE:
New poll out today shows Barack Obama up by 48%-46%.